We identify the climate risks most relevant to the business, agree which ones require action and give each priority a clear owner, budget and response plan. The same work also provides the content needed for disclosure.
Companies often begin climate-risk work by trying to estimate exactly what will happen and how likely it is. That creates false precision. The more useful task is to identify the developments that could materially affect the business, understand the range of possible outcomes and decide what action makes sense despite the uncertainty.
Three rules shape every engagement we run:
Stop trying to predict everything that could happen and how likely each thing is.
Concentrate on the developments that would matter most and on the actions that would leave the company better prepared across several possible outcomes.
Numbers are useful when they help someone choose, budget or act. A model that does not affect a decision has limited value.
Every workshop, model and report should improve the team's understanding or make the next decision easier. Tools such as En-ROADS and Climate Fresk are used only when they help people understand the issue and apply it to their work.
Different types of climate risk require different responses. Use the exercise to match each example with the approach that best fits it.
Drag and drop, or tap an item and then tap its slot.
Four kinds of risk, four different responses. That's where a real assessment starts.
Client name withheld; figures taken from the completed analysis.
A page from the real analysis, name removed. Every figure carries its uncertainty band, and the methodology is transparent and auditable. Click to view full size.
Routine 45°C-plus summers, cooling-dependent operations, and acute water stress in a hyper-arid region.
Heatwaves intensifying across the region, drought stressing the water supply, and a glazed building that depends on the grid to stay workable.
Urban flooding that blocks access and power, chronic stress on the metro water supply, and air-quality episodes from regional fires.
Physical risk at each site is only one part of the assessment. Each priority risk is also assigned to an owner and working group, with a budget and indicators, so the analysis becomes part of normal management.
Adjust the assumptions to see how they change the estimated financial effect.
Missing the opportunity to demonstrate leadership
You give colleagues a clear view of the priorities and the decisions required.
Slipping into check-the-box mode on an issue you personally care about
You make your strongest effort on the issues that matter to you
Failing to deliver the fundamental protective service your company expects
Your work meaningfully supports the broader business strategy
Failing to motivate action
The organization sees which actions are already under way and where further decisions are needed.
Trying to predict the future
You get better at making good decisions in the face of uncertainty
Believing you can prioritize risks without a real transition strategy and risk-thinking skills
The company understands how climate change may affect its strategy and where it has influence over the transition.
The work is carried out directly by senior consultants.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lead author with 35 years advising 150+ international clients on climate risk. Mark founded the first corporate climate-risk consulting firm in the U.S. and co-authored the first textbook on climate risk for the London School of Economics.
He implemented the first-ever carbon offsetting projects and pioneered the concept of climate neutrality, helping the first companies go net zero in 1996. Clients have included HP, Nike, Suncor, the EPA, and Stonyfield Farm.
Keith leads each engagement and brings in senior specialists when the work requires their expertise. This keeps the team experienced and the structure lean.
15 years managing large teams in complex international environments, on five continents. Executive MBA from ESADE, MA in International Politics from IBEI. Clients have included USAID, Coca-Cola, Merck, Cigna, Siemens Gamesa, and Allianz.
More regulators now require climate-risk disclosure: the EU's CSRD and TCFD-aligned reporting, California's SB 261, Spain's Ley 7/2021. If you're required to show your work, it needs to hold up.
If you can't answer all six, that's the gap we fill.
During a transaction or fundraising process, investors may ask how material climate risks have been identified and managed. Gaps are much harder to address once due diligence is under way.
Your operations, suppliers or markets are exposed to physical hazards or transition changes, and management wants to prepare before the effects become urgent.
A short introductory call can establish whether the exposure is material enough to justify a full assessment and where the work should begin.
Book an intro call →